[1]杨 彦,查建华,周 怡,等.基于模糊综合法的光伏发电项目风险评价方法及其应用研究[J].常州大学学报(自然科学版),2019,31(03):63-70.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.2095-0411.2019.03.007]
　YANG Yan,ZHA Jianhua,ZHOU Yi,et al.Risk Evaluation Method of Photovoltaic Power Generation Project and Its Application Research Based on Fuzzy Synthesis[J].Journal of Changzhou University(Natural Science Edition),2019,31(03):63-70.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.2095-0411.2019.03.007]
点击复制

基于模糊综合法的光伏发电项目风险评价方法及其应用研究()
分享到：

常州大学学报(自然科学版)[ISSN:2095-0411/CN:32-1822/N]

卷:
第31卷
期数:
2019年03期
页码:
63-70
栏目:
材料科学与工程
出版日期:
2019-05-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Risk Evaluation Method of Photovoltaic Power Generation Project and Its Application Research Based on Fuzzy Synthesis
文章编号:
2095-0411(2019)03-0063-08
作者:
杨 彦1; 查建华1; 周 怡2; 袁宁一1; 丁建宁1
(1.常州大学 江苏省光伏科学与工程协同创新中心,江苏 常州 213164; 2.常州宝利环保科技有限公司,江苏 常州 213022)
Author(s):
YANG Yan1;  ZHA Jianhua1;  ZHOU Yi2;  YUAN Ningyi1;  DING Jianning1
(1.Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Photovoltaic Science and Engineering, Changzhou University, Changzhou 213164,China; 2.Changzhou Baoli Environmental Technology Co., Ltd.,Changzhou 213022,China)
关键词:
光伏发电项目;  风险评价;  ANP;  TOPSIS
Keywords:
photovoltaic power generation project;  risk assessment;  ANP;  TOPSIS
分类号:
X 913
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.2095-0411.2019.03.007
摘要:
结合我国光伏发电项目的发展特点和基本属性,采用风险鉴定、风险元层次分析、风险表征3个步骤,充分考虑了光伏发电项目从筹备到实施到运营的全过程,对光伏发电项目涉及的风险单元进行识别鉴定,构建基于技术性、自然、环境、政策、市场、生命周期、经营管理、并网风险等8个风险评估指标层次体系,采用ANP-TOPSIS组合的方法,建立光伏发电项目的评估模型。通过对实例进行应用,表明该方法的实用、有效性,以期为光伏发电项目的方案制定及产业建设发展提供有益参考。
Abstract:
Combining with the development characteristics and basic attributes of photovoltaic power generation projects in China, this paper adopts three aspects of risk identification, risk element hierarchy analysis and risk characterization, and fully considers the whole process of photovoltaic power generation projects from preparation to implementation and operation, and identifies the risk units involved in photovoltaic power generation projects by constructing a risk evaluation index hierarchy system for 8 risks involving technology, nature, environment, policy, market, life cycle, management and grid-connection. An evaluation model of photovoltaic power generation is established by using ANP-TOPSIS method. The application of the example shows the practicability and validity of the model, which provides a reference for the formulation of photovoltaic projects and industrial development.

参考文献/References:

[1]YU J. Solar photovoltaic power generation existing problems and promotion measures[J]. New Energy Technology Project, 2010, 17(1): 42-44.
[2]李彦斌, 于心怡, 王致杰. 采用灰色关联度与TOPSIS法的光伏发电项目风险评价研究[J]. 电网技术, 2013, 37(6): 1519-1519.
[3]ZHANG L, WANG J, WEN H, et al. Operating performance, industry agglomeration and its spatial characteristics of Chinese photovoltaic industry[J]. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2016, 65: 373-386.
[4]杨琳, 谭亮, 刘洋. 基于模糊综合评价法的光伏发电项目风险评价研究[J]. 电力学报, 2014, 29(5): 427-430.
[5]CHIU Y, KE T Y, ZHOU Z S, et al. A performance evaluation of the cross-strait solar photovoltaic industry[J]. Journal of Renewable & Sustainable Energy, 2014, 6(1): 1078-1092.
[6]何宁波. 基于层次分析法与物元可拓的分布式光伏发电项目风险评价研究[J]. 山西电力, 2017(2): 9-13.
[7]张宁. 太阳能光伏发电项目风险管理研究[D]. 北京:华北电力大学, 2014.
[8]孙强, 张义斌, 韩冬, 等. 多因素、多维度的智能电网风险评估[J]. 电网技术, 2012, 36(9): 51-59.
[9]孙强, 葛旭波, 刘林, 等. 智能电网多属性网络层次组合评价法及其应用研究[J]. 电网技术, 2012, 36(10): 49-54.
[10]GRADY C A, HE X, PEETA S. Integrating social network analysis with analytic network process for international development project selection[J]. Expert Systems with Applications, 2015, 42(12): 5128-5138.
[11]HE Q, LUO L, HU Y, et al. Measuring the complexity of mega construction projects in China—a fuzzy analytic network process analysis[J]. International Journal of Project Management, 2015, 33(3): 549-563.
[12]柏青. 基于层次分析法的高速公路项目风险及不确定性研究[J]. 项目管理技术, 2015, 13(2): 62-66.
[13]HWANG C L, YOON K S. Multiple attribute decision making[M].Berlin:Spring-Verlag, 1981.
[14]刘亮, 何建新, 高强. 基于熵权的TOPSIS模型在城市供水方案优选中的应用[J]. 水资源与水工程学报, 2010, 21(3): 63-65.
[15]MANDIC K, DELIBASIC B, KNEZEVIC S, et al. Analysis of the financial parameters of Serbian banks through the application of the fuzzy AHP and TOPSIS methods[J]. Economic Modelling, 2014, 43: 30-37.
[16]王丰. AHP-熵权综合评价模型在火力发电厂总图运输方案评价中的应用[J]. 能源研究与管理, 2016(4): 31-33.

相似文献/References:

[1]张秋亚,徐凯琳,许筠,等.g-C3N4可见光-臭氧催化氧化降解二苯甲酮-4[J].常州大学学报(自然科学版),2022,34(03):54.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.2095-0411.2022.03.008]
　ZHANG Qiuya,XU Kailin,XU Jun,et al.Visible-Light-Driven Photocatalytic Ozonation for Degradation of Organic Sunscreen BP-4[J].Journal of Changzhou University(Natural Science Edition),2022,34(03):54.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.2095-0411.2022.03.008]
[2]姜志生,徐 慧,何岩峰,等.多元热流体开发稠油出砂机理及规律[J].常州大学学报(自然科学版),2024,36(02):48.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.2095-0411.2024.02.006]
　JIANG Zhisheng,XU Hui,HE Yanfeng,et al.Mechanism and law of heavy oil sand production in multi-component thermal fluid development[J].Journal of Changzhou University(Natural Science Edition),2024,36(03):48.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.2095-0411.2024.02.006]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2018-09-04。
基金项目:江苏省科技计划产学研前瞻性联合研究项目(BY2016029-17)。
作者简介:杨彦(1984—),女,江苏淮安人,博士,高级工程师。通信联系人:丁建宁(1966—),E-mail: dingjn@cczu.edu.cn
更新日期/Last Update: 2019-05-29